Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season/Soudelor
13W.SOUDELOR 93W.INVEST this invest could become a typhoon in the next days. currently to the south of invest 91P the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 21:53, July 29, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Soudelor uh oh... time bomb alert! has a good amount of convection around. this is going to be a long track and powerful one. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:26, July 30, 2015 (UTC) : Yeah, this is definitely one to watch out for, it's already forecast to become a cat 4 in the long run, and it could even become a 5. It'll probably turn more north in the late forecast period though. Ryan1000 17:32, July 30, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Soudelor this is going to bomb out in the next hours. radar from Guam is showing a possible eye. HWRF model is making it a very powerful (todays 12z run) and annular C5 (172kn/near 906mb) after passing Guam. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 02:45, August 2, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Soudelor now a typhoon. has 2 eyewalls and it can explode after passing Guam.the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 12:31, August 2, 2015 (UTC) this is going to explode any moment now a C2, has category 5 in the forecast! :D the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:45, August 2, 2015 (UTC) : Don't get too excited Odile, this storm is expected to make landfall as a strong category 4 in mainland China or Taiwan, and that isn't good news for them. Especially China, they haven't seen a cat 4 landfall in the area north of Taiwan since Saomai of 2006, which was the strongest typhoon to strike that area of mainland China. It's finally rid of the Tropical Upper Trophospheric Trough that was keeping it in check for several days, and now there's nothing holding it back. This could get pretty ugly... Ryan1000 21:30, August 2, 2015 (UTC) :: (Edit conflict) I agree, Ryan. I have absolutely no idea what is going on in the WPAC right now, but Soudelor is on fire. EIR imagery has showed a very small eye with intense convection while making landfall over Saipan (in the Marinara Islands) within the past few hours as well. Dvorak estimates have prompted the JTWC to upgrade Soudelor's winds to 105 knots (120 mph) (1-min) gusting to 130 knots (150 mph). To put this in perspective, this is a 60 knot (70 mph) increase in winds in just 24 hours - a prime case of rapid intensification. Moreover, alongside ten-minute winds of 90 knots (105 mph), the JMA is reporting a pressure of 940 mbar (hPa; 27.76 inHg), which makes Soudelor equivalent to Higos intensitywise by their standards. As the STR continues steering the typhoon WNW into an area of 31C SST's (quite warm, no?), the JTWC and JMA are both predicting the RI to continue - the JMA's forecast of 105 knots (120 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 910 mbar (hPa; 26.87 inHg) would tie Soudelor with Maysak as the strongest WPAC storm of the year if verified. In addition, while the JTWC are forecasting a peak of 145 knots (165 mph) gusting to 175 knots (200 mph), I won't be surprised if the typhoon reaches 160 knots (185 mph), given how fast it has come together and assuming no ERC happens. Fortunately, for Taiwan and other land areas that could be potentially affected, Soudelor is slated to encounter increasing shear and slightly lower SST's towards the end of the forecast period, which should bring its intensity down a little bit. However, this should not be taken literally; the JTWC forsees Soudelor coming eerily close to Taiwan at just under super typhoon intensity, which could spell disaster if preparations are not executed well. To end my post, for those who want to see Soudelor, have a look for yourself. AndrewTalk To Me 21:32, August 2, 2015 (UTC) :::: Soudelor is now a high-end category 4 super typhoon, with winds of 155 mph (115 by JMA's 10-minute sustained standard) and a pressure that has plunged down to 925 milibars. This thing has been absolutely exploding during the past few days and it's now on the doorstep of category 5 strength, and could possibly be the strongest storm of the season. It's expected to weaken to a 4 before hitting Taiwan or mainland China, but that's still not good news for them. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 15:09, August 3, 2015 (UTC) ::::: here are the models: GFS: straight runner. 159kn and 881mb near Taiwan CMC: makes an eary recurvature towards Japan. 968mb and 83kn ECMWF: possibly a super typhoon as it nears Taiwan HWRF: same track as GFS. annular and a literal 193kn bomb NAVGEM: same as Euro the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:50, August 3, 2015 (UTC) : I don't track the WPac anymore, but woah, this system is impressive. I can't believe how strong it got, it's like it just consumed many bottles of Gatorate in a short duration. Hopefully parts of Taiwan and China won't turn into a disaster zone due to this typhoon! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:01, August 3, 2015 (UTC) KABOOM! Soudelor literally trashed Maysak in intensity! the winds are insanely powerful. 215 km/h (130 mph) sustained(10-min mean) 285 km/h (180 mph) sustained (1-min mean) gusting to 305 km/h (190 mph) and a pressure of 900mb also. Soudelor resembles a lot like Tip. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 19:26, August 3, 2015 (UTC) : It's now the strongest WPac storm since Haiyan and the second-strongest storm worldwide in 2015 by pressure, after Pam earlier this year from the South Pacific which peaked at 896 mbars. However, this could get a little stronger before weakening due to cooler SST's and a (probable) ERC. Also, Odlie, we don't put the "super typhoon soudelor" header because "super typhoon" isn't an official term used by the JMA, it's an unofficial term used by the JTWC used to describe a 150 mph or stronger cat 4-5 typhoon. Ryan1000 23:10, August 3, 2015 (UTC) ::I thought I was exaggerating with my 160 knot (1-min) forecast above, but that is now what the JTWC forecasts to attain within the next 24 hours. One-minute gusts from Soudelor are estimated to be 190 knots (220 mph) per the JTWC. This is a very wicked system, and I think Soudelor might even have a chance at matching Haiyan's one-minute winds if it takes full advantage of its environment (31C SST's = trouble). Odile, in my opinion, Soudelor looks more like Cyclone Gonu, although Tip was also a beast. Also, although Soudelor was just a Category 1 when it hit Saipan, the damage is quite extensive and a state of emergency has been declared; read Bob Henson's latest blog post for more information. Speaking of which, Soudelor may have claimed the record for the smallest TC eye observed at landfall; its was only four nautical miles wide. Looking ahead, all of Taiwan is in the JTWC forecast cone, and preparations should be made for the entire nation accordingly. We do not need to see another Morakot there. AndrewTalk To Me 23:52, August 3, 2015 (UTC) :::Holy crap! I come back, and there is a mssive 180 MPH super typhoon! This looks like a beast. This reminds me of Haiyan on so many levels. Also, I'm going to go a bit off topic here and say pressure-wise, Haiyan was majorly snubbed, The winds were higher than Tip's, '''but the pressure was 895! While that is a ridiculously low pressure, there are at least '''20 tropical cyclones that have reached a pressure lower than that in the WPAC alone, that didn't include Wilma or Gilbert! leeboy100My Talk! 01:11, August 4, 2015 (UTC) ::::Leeboy, I agree with you that Haiyan likely had a lower pressure. However, winds and pressure do not perfectly correlate with each other. A system with higher winds than another can also have a higher pressure than that same system. Here's an extreme case - Ethel from the 1960 AHS had winds of 140 knots (160 mph), but a pressure of 972 mbar. In comparison, Hurricane Alex from the 2010 AHS had peak winds of 95 knots (110 mph), but a pressure nearly 25 mbar lower than that of Ethel's. Also, Cyclone Pam earlier this year had a peak pressure of 896 mbar, but its one-minute winds were 25 knots (30 mph) lower than Haiyan's. And to add to your last point, Cyclone Gafilo, the strongest SWIO TC ever, had the exact same ten-minute winds and pressure Haiyan did. And believe it or not, Zoe was more powerful than Haiyan. So was the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 02:06, August 4, 2015 (UTC) it seems that Soudelor's tops have been warming. theres a chance we might se a 200kn typhoon. so bye bye Tip. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:23, August 4, 2015 (UTC) : I'm like "O_O" at this system's strength. It's just getting EXTREMELY powerful! 200 knots, are you kidding me?! Imagine if this became the strongest storm ever recorded, beating out Tip... --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:09, August 5, 2015 (UTC) :::Timeout folks. Soudelor was never a threat to beat out Tip. First of all the, global models overdue super typhoons. They should way too low pressures and way too high winds. FTR, I hope you guys know that Tip isn't the stronger storm worldwide in terms of winds, and that honor belongs to Hayian (and also never ever use the JMA's estimates for intense typhoons as their Dvorak scale is 100% BS). Yes, pressure and wind relationships are inverse and depend on a number of different things. Also, Andrew, Ethal's winds have been well overestimated and the storm was probs just a Cat 2. Re-analysis will fix that eventually. Now onto the storm, it is weakening and it's structure will not permit any re-intensification after it completes its ERC. As for the storm at peak, it was probs around 160 knts and sub-900 mbar. Now near Saipan, it's intensity there is a bit more tricky. Stil, it was probs a exploding Cat 4 there based on a 939 mbar pressure reading. The storm pretty much copied Wilma as on Sunday, Soudelor had the dreaded pinhole eye and those storm's don't lag like non-pinholes do. Dvorak doesn't work very well with them either, so prior to its ERC Sunday night, Soudelor was likely 130 knts and might have been a Cat 5 briefly. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:22, August 5, 2015 (UTC) Yeah, the models really overdo most super typhoons in the WPac, and for the record, the JMA's technique to estimate the barometric pressure intensity of super typhoons doesn't go any lower than 895 mbars, so it's highly likely that Haiyan was much stronger than that; in fact, one of the (unofficial, but still more believable than JMA's) barometric pressure readings estimated by the JTWC just before Haiyan struck put the lowest pressure of Haiyan at 858 milibars which, if it was confirmed, would be 12 mbars lower than Tip as the strongest worldwide TC ever recorded. That, with nearly 200 mph winds made it the strongest storm ever in terms of wind speed as well. The worst part though, was that Haiyan hit land at that intensity and became the worst natural disaster in the Philippines history, in terms of both damage and loss of life. Tip on the other hand weakened substantially before hitting Japan as a cat 1. Back to Soudelor, it weakened significantly lately due to cooler SST's and now it's a moderate category 3, at 120 mph, but it's forecast to reintensify to a 135 mph cat 4 again before hitting Taiwan, which should significantly weaken it before it moves into mainland China. 'Ryan1000' 11:24, August 5, 2015 (UTC) : Soudelor continues to weaken, it's now a cat 2 by the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but it could reintensify into a 3 before hitting Taiwan sometime tomorrow. 'Ryan1000' 02:28, August 7, 2015 (UTC) : This storm will be making landfall tonight, and will likely drop torrential rain, I'm also getting concerned about possible landslides. This is '''not '''good. Also YE and Ryan, you have made me choose to never agree with JMA again, that 858 MB pressure was most likely correct. 895 mb, on the other hand is BS! : So in my personal opinion, Haiyan has taken Tip's throne, sorry Tip. leeboy100My Talk! 20:05, August 7, 2015 (UTC) ::: Soudelor probably won't be too serious for Taiwan because 1) it's not particularly strong, especially when you look at some of the past super typhoons to hit the island, and 2) it, like many previous, stronger storms, is moving by rather quickly so it won't be over the island for too long. That should limit the amount of flood damage this storm causes to Taiwan, and the island is well-prepared for typhoons. The most dangerous typhoons for Taiwan are the ones that don't move as they pass by the island, because they drop the heaviest rainfall and therefore cause the most flooding and damage. The most notorious such storm in recent years was Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damage as it looped over the northern half of the island for several days. 'Ryan1000' 03:05, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::: I was being a bit overdramatic for no reason whatsoever on my above posts, I don't know why. Probably because I've been very tired lately, haven't gotten much sleep. Anyways, Soudelor has oficially made landfall on Taiwan and has weakened to a category 2. It's getting late over here, so I'll keep track of this tomorrow. Stay safe, Taiwan citizens (I don't know what the name for them is) leeboy100My Talk! 04:53, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::::: They're called the Taiwanese. Anyways, Soudelor is leaving the island and heading into mainland China, but as a cat 1 now. 'Ryan1000' 11:36, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Soudelor is just about ready to strike Jiangxi Province. Winds are currently 70 knots (80 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg) per the JMA. On the JTWC side, they last estimated winds of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-min) gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). A combination of moderate shear and land interaction will very likely suck out all the remaining energy Soudelor has, and the JTWC forecasts dissipation as the typhoon nears the Chang Jiang region. Also, jumping back to the Mariana Islands, Saipan has been left in a state of emergency, and there has been tremendous amounts of damage, as you can see. Repair efforts may take several weeks, and the damage on Saipan has been compared to Pongsona's on Guam. So far, in Taiwan, Soudelor has killed six, left a few million without power, and dropped some three feet of rain around Taiping Mountain. I doubt impacts will be bad as Morakot, however. AndrewTalk To Me 13:38, August 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Soudelor (2nd time) The JTWC has issued its last advisory on Soudelor, while the JMA has weakened its winds to 40 knots (45 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg). From here forwards, as the storm is shredded by the Chinese terrain, rain will be a greater threat, which will not be good news for an area already saturated in some areas. Meanwhile, Taiwan has seen a few million homes without power, nearly 200 injured, and lots of flying objects from Soudelor. Not extreme, but notable. AndrewTalk To Me 02:46, August 9, 2015 (UTC) :The JMA has further downgraded Soudelor's winds to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg). Meanwhile, thousands of trees have been reported as fallen in Futian, and back in Taiwan, Taipei 101's tuned mass damper really swayed during the typhoon. AndrewTalk To Me 12:43, August 9, 2015 (UTC) ::I feel bad for anyone in Taiwan and parts of China that have to suffer through this system. There are some photos at the bottom of this page, which just shows the extent of damage this system did, especially on Saipan. Overall, this was a really awesome storm to witness, due to the powerful strength it achieved. It became the strongest 2015 storm and even tried to challenge storms like Haiyan and Tip. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:24, August 9, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Soudelor Soudelor has further weakened to a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) per the JMA. In Mainland China, things are not looking well. Twelve people have already been killed, more than the reported number in Taiwan, and rainfall totals are allegedly the highest seen in a century. Moreover, the damage total in Wenzhou - ''$617 million (2015 USD), was a lot higher than I thought, and I also believe this is reflective of the notable impact left behind in the area. Given what has been reported in Saipan and Mainland China, it seems plausible that Soudelor may be retired. AndrewTalk To Me 22:43, August 9, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Soudelor Down, and out. Ryan1000 04:37, August 10, 2015 (UTC)